Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaf080

J Plant Ecol ›› 2025, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): rtaf080.DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtaf080

• Research Articles •

Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

Nan Wang^a, Ayong Jiao^a, Yingjun Xu^a, Yacun Yang^a, Nan Cong^b,*, Weiwei Yao^a,*

^aState Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
^bLhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

^*Corresponding author. Email: yaoww@scu.edu.cn (W.Y.); congnan@igsnrr.ac.cn (N.C.)

Received:2025-04-08 Accepted:2025-05-20 Online:2025-05-31 Published:2025-08-01
Supported by:
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3202002), the Cooperative Research Project of Sichuan Water Resources Department (SKY2020-SJZX-16), the Guizhou Province Science and Technology Project ([2024]116), the Science and Technology Project of Bijie city of open competition mechanism to select the best candidates (BKHZDZX(2023)1), the Project of Xinjiang Ecological Water Conservancy Research Center (2024B002) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071133).

中国南北典型流域植被物候与净初级生产力对气候变化的差异化响应

Abstract

Abstract: The Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) are the largest river basins in China, representing typical regions in southern and northern China. Understanding the impacts of climate and phenology on net primary productivity (NPP) is essential for regional ecological protection, management and carbon neutrality. Based on remote sensing and climate data, this study quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations in vegetation phenology and NPP. Pearson correlation and structural equation modeling were employed to examine the mechanisms through which climate and phenology influence NPP. The results reveal distinct NPP accumulation mechanisms in the YZRB and YRB. In the YZRB, the growing season significantly lengthened (0.60 days yr^-1, P < 0.05), resulting in an annual NPP increase of 3.19 gC m^-2 yr^-1, primarily driven by spring NPP (52% contribution), with direct effects of temperature (β = 0.71, P < 0.001) and radiation (β = 0.63, P < 0.001) on NPP. In contrast, the YRB exhibited balanced seasonal NPP growth (3.54 gC m^-2 yr^-1 for annual NPP), with precipitation regulating NPP through both direct and phenology-mediated indirect pathways (indirect β = 0.27, P < 0.05). These findings emphasize the complexity of the effects of climate and phenology on NPP, underscoring the necessity for region-specific management strategies to optimize productivity under climate change.

Key words: vegetation NPP, phenology, climate change, regional differences, Yangtze River Basin, Yellow River Basin

摘要：
长江流域与黄河流域代表我国南北生态系统，呈现出典型湿润区与干旱区的生态与气候特征。明确气候因子与植被物候对净初级生产力(NPP)的调控效应，对于提升区域生态系统管理水平与实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。本研究综合多源遥感与气象数据，系统评估了两流域植被物候与NPP的时空变化特征，并结合皮尔逊相关分析与结构方程模型，解析了气候-物候共同作用于NPP的路径机制。结果表明，长江流域植被生长季显著延长(0.60 d yr^–1, P < 0.05)，伴随NPP显著增加(3.19 g C m^–2 yr^–1)，其增量主要源于春季NPP的贡献(占比52%)，温度(β = 0.71, P < 0.001)和辐射(β = 0.63, P < 0.001)对NPP呈现显著的直接正效应。相比之下，黄河流域NPP增长速率略高(3.54 g C m^–2 yr^–1)，季节贡献较为均衡，降水不仅直接作用于NPP，还通过调节物候表现出间接效应(β = 0.27, P < 0.05)。本研究揭示了气候与物候对植被生产力的耦合调控策略，强调需因地制宜优化区域生态管理策略，以实现植被生产力提升。

关键词: 植被净初级生产力, 物候, 气候变化, 区域差异, 长江流域, 黄河流域

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Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

中国南北典型流域植被物候与净初级生产力对气候变化的差异化响应

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