Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaf080

J Plant Ecol ›› 2025, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): rtaf080.DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtaf080

• Research Articles •

Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

Nan Wang^a, Ayong Jiao^a, Yingjun Xu^a, Yacun Yang^a, Nan Cong^b,*, Weiwei Yao^a,*

^aState Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
^bLhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

^*Corresponding author. Email: yaoww@scu.edu.cn (W.Y.); congnan@igsnrr.ac.cn (N.C.)

Received:2025-04-08 Accepted:2025-05-20 Online:2025-05-31 Published:2025-08-01
Supported by:
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3202002), the Cooperative Research Project of Sichuan Water Resources Department (SKY2020-SJZX-16), the Guizhou Province Science and Technology Project ([2024]116), the Science and Technology Project of Bijie city of open competition mechanism to select the best candidates (BKHZDZX(2023)1), the Project of Xinjiang Ecological Water Conservancy Research Center (2024B002) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071133).

中国南北典型流域植被物候与净初级生产力对气候变化的差异化响应

Abstract

Abstract: The Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) are the largest river basins in China, representing typical regions in southern and northern China. Understanding the impacts of climate and phenology on net primary productivity (NPP) is essential for regional ecological protection, management and carbon neutrality. Based on remote sensing and climate data, this study quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations in vegetation phenology and NPP. Pearson correlation and structural equation modeling were employed to examine the mechanisms through which climate and phenology influence NPP. The results reveal distinct NPP accumulation mechanisms in the YZRB and YRB. In the YZRB, the growing season significantly lengthened (0.60 days yr^-1, P < 0.05), resulting in an annual NPP increase of 3.19 gC m^-2 yr^-1, primarily driven by spring NPP (52% contribution), with direct effects of temperature (β = 0.71, P < 0.001) and radiation (β = 0.63, P < 0.001) on NPP. In contrast, the YRB exhibited balanced seasonal NPP growth (3.54 gC m^-2 yr^-1 for annual NPP), with precipitation regulating NPP through both direct and phenology-mediated indirect pathways (indirect β = 0.27, P < 0.05). These findings emphasize the complexity of the effects of climate and phenology on NPP, underscoring the necessity for region-specific management strategies to optimize productivity under climate change.

Key words: vegetation NPP, phenology, climate change, regional differences, Yangtze River Basin, Yellow River Basin

摘要：
长江流域与黄河流域代表我国南北生态系统，呈现出典型湿润区与干旱区的生态与气候特征。明确气候因子与植被物候对净初级生产力(NPP)的调控效应，对于提升区域生态系统管理水平与实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。本研究综合多源遥感与气象数据，系统评估了两流域植被物候与NPP的时空变化特征，并结合皮尔逊相关分析与结构方程模型，解析了气候-物候共同作用于NPP的路径机制。结果表明，长江流域植被生长季显著延长(0.60 d yr^–1, P < 0.05)，伴随NPP显著增加(3.19 g C m^–2 yr^–1)，其增量主要源于春季NPP的贡献(占比52%)，温度(β = 0.71, P < 0.001)和辐射(β = 0.63, P < 0.001)对NPP呈现显著的直接正效应。相比之下，黄河流域NPP增长速率略高(3.54 g C m^–2 yr^–1)，季节贡献较为均衡，降水不仅直接作用于NPP，还通过调节物候表现出间接效应(β = 0.27, P < 0.05)。本研究揭示了气候与物候对植被生产力的耦合调控策略，强调需因地制宜优化区域生态管理策略，以实现植被生产力提升。

关键词: 植被净初级生产力, 物候, 气候变化, 区域差异, 长江流域, 黄河流域

Nan Wang, Ayong Jiao, Yingjun Xu, Yacun Yang, Nan Cong, Weiwei Yao. Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China[J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(4): 1-.

[1]	Mingyang Liu, Weiren Wang, Qing Ye, Hui Liu, Ronghua Li, Shidan Zhu, Osazee O Oyanoghafo, Pengcheng He. Trade-offs between water use efficiency and hydraulic conductivity across 52 woody species distributed in three forests along a precipitation gradient [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(3): 1-.
[2]	Yuzhu Chen, Peng Li, Yunpeng Luo, Longjun Wang, Ying Peng, Tong Li, Xiaolu Zhou, Changhui Peng. Nitrogen deposition altered the climatic sensitivity of vegetation phenology [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(3): 1-.
[3]	Hanliang Gui, Xuewen Zhou, Zixuan Li, Qinchuan Xin. Overestimated carbon uptake stability due to inadequate vegetation dynamics in ecosystem models [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(3): 1-.
[4]	Siyuan Gao, Yifan Gao, Huimin Zhou, Chunyan Lu, Xinxin Wang, Ying Chen, Hao Wang, Chengcheng Dong, Huiying Liu. Soil multifunctionality in the face of climate change and human impact across China’s drylands [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(2): 1-.
[5]	Na Li, Suke Hou, Mai-He Li, Xi Qi, Liangjun Zhu, Jitang Li, Paolo Cherubini, Zhaoyong Hu, Zhengfang Wu, Renkai Dong, Lei Wang, Youwen Wang, Danyang Yuan, Haibo Du. Elevation gradient modulates the effects of herbaceous encroachment on the long-term growth trends and climate sensitivity of Rhododendron aureum in alpine tundra [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(2): 1-.
[6]	Chenxin Miao, Jun Du, Wen Wang, Juanjuan Wu, Longqing Wu, Kehai Zhang, Xuee Ma, Heng Ren. Inter-annual climate variability reshapes the spatial matching of plant and pollinators: evidence from a native invasive species [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(1): 1-37.
[7]	Shuo Zhang, Ya-Jie Zhou, Jia-Na Lin, Wen Qin, Ting Zhou, Shao-Lin Peng. Potential effects of future climate change on global Taxus distributions and diversity [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2026, 19(1): 1-.
[8]	Gianalberto Losapio, Lucía Mottet, Nora Khelidj, Bao Ngan Tu, Bruno E.L. Cerabolini, Stephanie Grand, Natasha de Vere, Antoine Guisan. Ecological indicators predict functional diversity dynamics following glacier retreat [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(6): 1-37.
[9]	Jiaqi Guo, Zihan Zhou, Tong Feng, Jincheng Liu, Jun Liu, Xiaomin Zeng. Prediction of potential suitable areas for dominant tree species in China under future climate change scenarios [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(6): 1-53.
[10]	Meng-Qiu Niu, Mei-Hong Huang, Peng-Fei Yang, Quan-Sheng Fu, Jie Lin, Junyi Chen, Tao Zhang, Zhi-Min Li, Zhou-Yu Liao, Hang Sun, Jian-Guo Chen. Multiple cushion plants enhance alpine plant diversity through sustaining plant–plant co-occurrence networks [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(6): 1-48.
[11]	Huanfa Sun, Liming Yan, Xingli Xia, Yihang Fan, Huizhu Li, Kun Huang, Xuhui Zhou, Jianyang Xia. Tracking forest overstory and understory phenology using a near-surface remote sensing system [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(6): 1-.
[12]	Qiaoyu Yan, Xuming Wang, Ashraf Muhammad Arslan, Runji Ma, Qi Liu, Lei Li, Xiaoying Gong. Electron transport to assimilation ratio (ETR/A) of C₃ plants is affected by atmospheric CO₂ [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(5): 1-34.
[13]	Enze Li, Hang Luo, Xingyong Cui, Kangjia Liu, Wenpan Dong. Future climate change promotes the global threat of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) to ash species [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(5): 1-26.
[14]	Wenjie Li, Chenrui Wang, Peng Zhang, Junsheng Ke, Zijian Yu, Yilin Dang, Hongying Jiang, Mu Liu, Kui Hu, Xiang Liu. Higher leaf positions associated with biotrophic pathogen infection [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(5): 1-35.
[15]	Chongyu Yan, Shirong Liu, Zhi Chen, Xiaodong Niu, Zhicheng Chen, Xiuqing Nie, Guirui Yu. Biophysical controls on the interannual variation in carbon fluxes of a natural oak forest [J]. J Plant Ecol, 2025, 18(5): 1-41.

Divergent responses of vegetation phenology and productivity to climate change in typical river basins across Northern and Southern China

中国南北典型流域植被物候与净初级生产力对气候变化的差异化响应

HTML

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments