Abstract: Mongolian herder households maintain the health and condition of their livestock by adapting to the characteristics of the local vegetation distribution. Thus, predicting future vegetation changes is important for stable livestock grazing and sustainable rangeland use. We predicted the distributional extent of rangeland vegetation, specifically desert steppe, steppe and meadow steppe communities, for the period 2081-2100, based on vegetation data obtained from a previous study. Rangeland vegetation data collected in Mongolia (43-50° N, 87-119° E) between 2012 and 2016 (278 plots) were classified into community types. Species distribution modeling was conducted using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Distribution data for desert steppe, steppe and meadow steppe communities were used as objective variables, and bioclimatic data obtained from WorldClim were used as explanatory variables. CMIP6-downscaled future climate projections provided by WorldClim were used for future prediction. The area under the curve values for the desert steppe, steppe and meadow steppe models were 0.850, 0.847 and 0.873, respectively. Suitable habitat was projected to shrink under all scenarios and for all communities with climate change. The extent of reduction in potential suitable areas was greatest for meadow steppe communities. Our results indicate that meadow steppe communities will transition to steppe communities with future climate change.

Key words: climate change, community, MaxEnt, SDM, steppe, WorldClim