Abstract: In the Eurasian forest-steppe, with increasing aridity, the balance between naturally co-existing forest and grassland patches is expected to shift towards grassland dominance in the long run, although feedback mechanisms and changes in land-use may alter this process. In this study, we compared old and recent aerial photographs of Hungarian forest-steppes to find out whether and how the forest proportion and the number of forest patches change at the decadal time scale. The percentage area covered by forest significantly increased in all study sites. The observed forest encroachment may be a legacy from earlier land-use: due to ceased or reduced grazing pressure, forests are invading grasslands until the potential forest cover allowed by climate and soil is reached. The number of forest patches significantly increased at one site (Fülöpháza), while it decreased at two sites (Bugac and Orgovány) and showed no significant change at the fourth site (Tázlár). This indicates that forest encroachment can happen at least in two different ways: through the emergence of new forest patches in the grassland, and through the extension and coalescence of already existing forest patches. Though the present work revealed increasing tree cover at a decadal time scale, the dynamic process should be monitored in the future to see how the vegetation reacts to further aridification. This could help devise a conservation strategy, as the woody/non-woody balance has a profound influence on basic ecosystem properties.

Key words: forest–grassland dynamics, grazing, semi-open ecosystems, tree–grass ecosystems, woody–herbaceous ecosystems