J Plant Ecol ›› 2026, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): rtag033.DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtag033

• Reviews •    

Data-model integration in global change manipulative experiments: progresses, challenges and future directions

He Lyu, Xue-Qian Zhang, Jian Su and Ming-Kai Jiang*   

  1. State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction (VegLab), College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China
    *Corresponding author. E-mail: jiangmingkai@zju.edu.cn
    †These authors contributed equally to this work.
  • Received:2025-09-24 Accepted:2026-02-20 Published:2026-08-01
  • Supported by:
    We acknowledge funding support from Ministry of Science and Technology of China National R&D Program (2022YFF0801904), Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (LR24C030001), Fundamental and Interdisciplinary Disciplines Breakthrough Plan of the Ministry of Education of China (JYB2025XDXM909), and Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang (2024C03244).

全球变化控制实验中的数据-模型整合:进展、挑战与展望

Abstract: Anthropogenic global change profoundly affects terrestrial ecosystem structure and function, creating an urgent and persistent need to accurately predict future ecosystem states. Field-based manipulative experiments provide critical mechanistic insights into these impacts but are inherently limited in spatio-temporal scope. Conversely, process-based models can extrapolate to broader scales but often contain simplified or unrealistic mechanisms that lead to uncertain projections. Data-model integration has emerged as an essential approach to bridging this gap, testing model assumptions against empirical evidence and guiding experimental design via model-based hypotheses. This review synthesized progress in integrating manipulative experiments with process-based models across three key global change drivers: elevated CO2, climate change (warming and altered rainfall) and nutrient manipulation. We demonstrated how this integration reduced key uncertainties in processes such as photosynthesis, carbon-nutrient coupling and soil biogeochemistry, whilst exposing persistent gaps in plant hydraulics, microbial dynamics and multifactorial stresses. These advances were most pronounced in representing CO2 fertilization effects, including improved stomatal optimization theory, dynamic carbon allocation schemes and coupled carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycling. By contrast, its application to warming, rainfall change and multi-nutrient interactions remained underdeveloped. To catalyze future progress, we propose specific strategies to foster a more synergistic cycle of knowledge co-production. These include prioritizing the quantification of mechanism-specific data to develop dynamic model formulations, systematically using multi-site experimental networks to benchmark and refine model processes across scales, and strategically employing models to design targeted experiments. Ultimately, these strategies are indispensable for developing more realistic models and achieving predictive understanding of ecosystem responses to global change.

This review synthesizes advances in integrating global change manipulative experiments with process-based models, identifies persistent knowledge gaps in key ecological processes, and proposes targeted strategies to improve predictive understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change.

摘要:
全球变化对陆地生态系统结构与功能产生深刻影响,因此准确预测其未来演变趋势成为当前研究的紧迫需求。作为研究生态系统响应全球变化的重要手段,野外控制实验虽能提供关键机制认识,但受时空尺度的制约。相比之下,过程模型虽可将站点尺度的认知拓展至区域乃至全球,却常包含简化或失真的机制假设,进而导致预测结果存在不确定性。为此,学术界需整合控制实验与过程模型,从而在利用实证数据检验模型假设的同时,也能基于模型假说指导实验设计。本综述聚焦于大气CO2浓度升高、气候变化(增温与降水格局改变)以及养分富集这三类关键全球变化因子,系统梳理了数据-模型整合方向的研究进展。结果表明,应用该整合框架有效降低了光合作用、碳-养分耦合以及土壤生物地球化学等关键过程的模拟不确定性,并且进一步揭示了植物水力学、微生物动力学以及多因子胁迫等方面的研究空白。其中,CO2施肥效应进展最为显著,主要体现在气孔优化理论的改进、动态碳分配方案的建立以及碳-氮-磷耦合循环机制的实现。然而,该整合框架在增温、降水变化以及多养分因子交互作用研究中的应用仍相对滞后。为推动该方向持续发展、促进协同知识共建,未来数据-模型整合研究需着力于以下三方面: 1)优先量化特定机制的数据以支撑动态模型结构改进; 2)系统整合多站点实验网络以开展跨尺度模型评估与优化; 3)以及基于模型假说指导针对性的实验设计。最终,这些策略将为构建更真实的生态系统模型、实现全球变化响应的精准预测奠定坚实基础。

关键词: 数据-模型整合, 全球变化, 控制实验, 陆面过程模型, 生态系统碳循环, 模型不确定性