J Plant Ecol ›› Advance articles     DOI:10.1093/jpe/rtag273

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Divergent growth-climate responses of living and dying Picea crassifolia trees in the western Qilian Mountains: early-warning signals for tree mortality

Tingting Zhao1, Shuai Hou2, 4, Bo Wang2, Wentai Liu1, Yilin Zhan1, Jiarui Wu1, Feifei Shang1, Shuqing Li1, Wei Zhang1, Guobao Xu1, 3, *   

  1. 1. Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Songshan Lake North District School, Dongguan 523429, China;
    4. Shaanxi Xi'an Urban Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Xi'an 710127, China
    *Corresponding authors:
    Guobao Xu, E-mail: guobaoxu@nwu.edu.cn
  • Received:2026-04-10 Revised:2026-10-07 Accepted:2026-10-14 Published:2026-11-11

Abstract: Warming has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme drought and heatwaves, which have induced pervasive increases in tree mortality, threatening forest ecosystems. However, little is known about how growth-climate responses of living vs. dying trees change, hindering exploration of tree die-off mechanisms. To address this issue, we used tree rings from Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) in the arid western Qilian Mountains. We compared the radial growth and climate-growth responses between living and dying trees before and after a warming shift in 1987, and tree-growth resilience under drought extremes. The results indicate that after the warming shift, dying spruce exhibited a significant decline in radial growth and an increased tree mortality rate. Compared with the pre-warming period, the main climatic limiting factor for radial growth of living trees shifted from the pre-growing season (from September of the previous year to March of the current year) SPEI_03 to precipitation during the early-mid growing season (April to June of the current year), whereas that of dying trees shifted to the early-mid growing season SPEI_03. In all drought extremes, dying trees exhibited lower resistance than living trees, but recovery depended on drought severity. Our results suggest that under persistent drought, physiological deterioration in trees before death, i.e., impaired hydraulic conductivity and reduced carbon reserves, suppressed radial growth and intensified differences in growth-climate response. Our findings improve the understanding of tree die-off mechanisms and provide a basis for conservation and management in arid mountainous forest ecosystems.

Using tree rings from Qinghai spruce in the western Qilian Mountains, we compared radial growth, climate responses, and resilience to extreme drought in living and dying trees before and after the 1987 warming shift. Dying trees exhibited a significant decline in radial growth which was limited by SPEI_03, while living trees were limited by current April-June precipitation. Dying trees had lower resistance compared to living trees, and recovery varied with drought severity.

Key words: Qinghai spruce, radial growth, climate response, warming shift, tree mortality