J Plant Ecol ›› Advance articles     DOI:10.1093/jpe/rtag237

• Research Article •    

Decoding nearly four decades of rubber plantation age in China using Bi-directional CCDC and height–age model

Hongfeng Xua, b, Shanshan Liua, b, Yaoliang Chena, b, *, Lilei Jianga, b, Dengsheng Lua, b   

  1. a. Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China;
    b. School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China
    *Corresponding author:Yaoliang Chen, Email:chenyl@fjnu.edu.cn
  • Received:2026-06-29 Accepted:2026-09-07 Published:2026-10-03
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Science and Technology Plan Project (grant number 2026YFDZ0120), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 42277450), and the National Key R&D Program of China (grant number 2021YFD220040102).

Abstract: Stand age is a key ecological and management indicator for rubber plantations, because it controls plantation productivity, renewal cycles, carbon accumulation, and tropical land-use legacies. However, spatially explicit long-term information on rubber plantation age remains limited in China. In this study, we reconstructed annual 30 m stand-age maps of rubber plantations in China from 1987 to 2022 by integrating Landsat time-series analysis, an improved Bi-directional Continuous Change Detection and Classification (BCDC) algorithm, handheld laser scanning (HLS)-derived plot height, and a four-parameter logistic height-age model. The resulting maps revealed a transition from a juvenile-dominated plantation system in 1987 (≤5 yr, 91.08%) to a multi-cohort structure by 2022, when juvenile (≤5 yr, 10.77%), middle-aged (6-15 yr, 30.02%), mature (16-30 yr, 24.66%), old (31-36 yr, 26.07%), and long-established plantations (37-48 yr, 8.48%) jointly shaped the national age composition. Provincial patterns diverged, with a broad multi-age structure in Yunnan, mature-old dominance in Hainan, and a small fragmented plantation area in Guangdong. Stand age varied along latitude, elevation, and slope gradients, indicating the combined influence of climatic suitability, terrain constraints, and regional plantation histories. Methodological validation supported map reliability (RMSE = 2.95 yr; rRMSE = 23.64%) and showed improved performance relative to standard CCDC and LandTrendr. The results reveal the evolution and regional differentiation of China’s rubber plantation age structure and provide a data basis for rubber plantation renewal planning, latex-production potential assessment, and carbon accounting in tropical rubber plantation ecosystems.

This study developed annual 30 m rubber plantation stand age maps for China from 1987 to 2022 by integrating Landsat time series, bidirectional CCDC, handheld laser scanning, and a height-age model. The results reveal a shift from juvenile-dominated plantations to a multi-cohort structure, providing spatial evidence for renewal planning, latex production assessment, and carbon accounting.

Key words: Google Earth Engine, Handheld laser scanning, Rubber plantations, Stand age, Temporal dynamics, Bi-directional CCDC