Abstract: Restoring carbon and biodiversity after deforestation hinges on forest recovery. Demographic models must capture short-term transient and long-term asymptotic dynamics, yet transient responses are rarely quantified, limiting restoration strategies that address immediate and future trajectories. Using 11 years of demographic data from three subtropical forests in Southeast China (a selectively logged secondary forest stand and two reference secondary forest stands with contrasting site qualities), we constructed integral projection models (IPMs) for Pinus massoniana, a pioneer tree species widely used in reforestation projects. Specifically, we estimated short-term transient growth rates (r), long-term stochastic growth rates (λs), and their elasticities to vital rates. In the logged stand, transient dynamics revealed an initial amplification (r >1) during the first-year post-logging, followed by a decline (r <1). In contrast, the two reference stands maintained more stable population trajectories. Asymptotic projections under current environmental conditions indicated that the logged population declines in the long term (λs <1), whereas both reference stands are projected to persist near equilibrium (λs ≥1). Transient elasticity shifted through recovery, with higher sensitivity to fecundity immediately after logging, but dominance of survival-related size transitions (growth and shrinkage) in later years. Despite a decade of regeneration, the logged population remained far from a stable stage distribution (e.g., relative proportion of seedlings to adults). These results suggest that management priorities may shift from supporting post-disturbance recruitment pulses to enhancing establishment and growth later in recovery, with interventions tailored to these changing demographic constraints.

Key words: Deforestation, ecological restoration, integral projection model, pioneer tree, transient population dynamics