J Plant Ecol ›› Advance articles     DOI:10.1093/jpe/rtag033

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Data-Model Integration in Global Change Manipulative Experiments: Progresses, Challenges, and Future Directions

He Lyu1,#, Xue-Qian Zhang1,#, Jian Su1, Ming-Kai Jiang1,*   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction (VegLab), College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, China
    #These authors contributed equally to this work.
    * Correspondence: Ming-Kai Jiang, Email: jiangmingkai@zju.edu.cn; Tel & Fax: + 86 15901047944
  • Received:2025-09-24 Accepted:2026-02-20 Published:2026-03-06

全球变化控制实验中的数据-模型整合: 进展、挑战与展望

Abstract: Anthropogenic global change profoundly affects terrestrial ecosystem structure and function, creating an urgent and persistent need to accurately predict future ecosystem states. Field-based manipulative experiments provide critical mechanistic insights into these impacts but are inherently limited in spatio-temporal scope. Conversely, process-based models can extrapolate to broader scales but often contain simplified or unrealistic mechanisms that lead to uncertain projections. Data-model integration has emerged as an essential approach to bridging this gap, testing model assumptions against empirical evidence and guiding experimental design via model-based hypotheses. This review synthesizes progress in integrating manipulative experiments with process-based models across three key global change drivers: elevated CO2, climate change (warming and altered rainfall), and nutrient manipulation. We demonstrated how this integration reduced key uncertainties in processes such as photosynthesis, carbon-nutrient coupling, and soil biogeochemistry, whilst exposing persistent gaps in plant hydraulics, microbial dynamics, and multifactorial stresses. These advances were most pronounced in representing CO2 fertilization effects, including improved stomatal optimization theory, dynamic carbon allocation schemes, and coupled carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycling. By contrast, its application to warming, rainfall change, and multi-nutrient interactions remained underdeveloped. To catalyze future progress, we propose specific strategies to foster a more synergistic cycle of knowledge co-production. These include prioritizing the quantification of mechanism-specific data to develop dynamic model formulations, systematically using multi-site experimental networks to benchmark and refine model processes across scales, and strategically employing models to design targeted experiments. Ultimately, these strategies are indispensable for developing more realistic models and achieving predictive understanding of ecosystem responses to global change.

This review synthesizes advances in integrating global change manipulative experiments with process-based models, identifies persistent knowledge gaps in key ecological processes, and proposes targeted strategies to improve predictive understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change.

Key words: data-model integration, global change, manipulative experiments, land surface models, ecosystem carbon cycle, model uncertainty

摘要:
人类活动引起的全球变化正深刻改变着陆地生态系统的结构与功能,准确预测其未来演变趋势已成为当前研究的紧迫需求。作为研究生态系统响应全球变化的重要手段,野外控制实验在提供关键实证的同时,也受限于其固有的时空尺度。相比之下,基于过程的模型虽可将站点尺度的认知推演至区域乃至全球,却常包含简化或失真的机制假设,进而导致预测结果存在不确定性。为弥合这一尺度与机制之间的鸿沟,研究者需有效整合控制实验与过程模型,从而在利用实证数据检验模型假设的同时,也能基于模型假说指导实验设计。本文聚焦于大气CO2浓度升高、气候变化(增温与降水格局改变)以及养分调控这三类关键全球变化驱动因子,系统梳理了数据-模型整合方向的研究进展。结果表明,这一整合框架的应用不仅有效降低了光合作用、碳-养分耦合以及土壤生物地球化学等关键过程的模拟不确定性,还进一步揭示了植物水力学、微生物动力学以及多因子胁迫等方面的研究空白。其中,CO2施肥效应的表征进展最为显著,主要体现在气孔优化理论的改进、动态碳分配方案的建立以及碳-氮-磷耦合循环机制的实现。然而,该整合框架在增温、降水变化以及多养分因子交互作用研究中的应用仍相对滞后。为推动该方向持续发展、促进协同知识共建,未来数据-模型整合研究需着力于:优先量化特定机制的数据以支撑动态模型结构改进,系统整合多站点实验网络以开展跨尺度模型评估与优化,以及基于模型假说指导针对性的实验设计。最终,这些策略将为构建更真实的生态系统模型、实现全球变化响应的精准预测夯实基础。

关键词: 数据-模型整合, 全球变化, 控制实验, 陆面过程模型, 生态系统碳循环, 模型不确定性