J Plant Ecol ›› 2026, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): rtag001.DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtag001

• Research Article • Previous Articles    

Predicting the spatial distribution of vegetation alliances with ecological knowledge under sample-limited conditions

Fang-He Zhao1, 2, †, Ningxia Jia3, 4, 5, †, Ke Guo2, 3, 4, A-Xing Zhu6 and Cheng-Zhi Qin1, 2, 7, 8, *   

  1. 1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
    4China National Botanical Garden, Beijing 100093, China
    5College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    6Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
    7School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
    8Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
    *Corresponding author. E-mail: qincz@lreis.ac.cn
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
  • Received:2025-08-20 Accepted:2025-12-09 Published:2026-08-01
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [42501531, 42471499], Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDB0740200-02-05], The Second Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) Program [2019QZKK0301], China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [GZC20250244], Innovation Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System.

有限样本条件下基于生态学知识的植被群系空间分布预测

Abstract: Accurate spatial distribution of vegetation types is fundamental to understanding ecosystem structure, biodiversity patterns and environmental responses. However, predicting the distribution of lower-level vegetation classification units such as alliances remains challenging due to limited and uneven sample availability, particularly for rare or narrow-niche communities. To address this issue, this study proposed the KnowSim method that integrates expert-defined ecological knowledge to evaluate environmental similarity between locations. Vegetation types were predicted by assigning each site the type of its most ecologically similar sample. The method was tested in two regions of the Tibetan Plateau (Bome and Zoige), which exhibit contrasting yet complementary climatic and topographic conditions, together representing the Plateau’s typical environmental settings. Results demonstrate that KnowSim consistently outperformed statistical methods (Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression) in both accuracy and type diversity. The improvement was particularly evident for alliances with sparse samples, achieving up to 24.6% higher accuracy in Zoige for alliances with fewer than five training samples. Moreover, the predicted vegetation maps better aligned with ecological gradients and field observations, demonstrating both ecological interpretability and predictive robustness under sample-limited conditions.

Spatial prediction of vegetation alliances is challenging due to the large number of types and unevenly distributed samples per type. We propose a method based on environmental similarity and ecological knowledge that produces more accurate and ecologically meaningful results across the Tibetan Plateau.

摘要:
准确刻画植被空间分布对于理解生态系统结构、生物多样性格局以及环境响应具有重要意义。然而,受样本量和空间异质性的限制,现有方法仍难以准确预测低等级植被分类单元(如植被群系),尤其是稀有或窄生态位群落的空间分布。针对这一问题,本文开发了KnowSim方法,通过生态学知识计算已有样点与待测样点之间的地理相似性,将最相似样点的植被类型赋予待测样点,实现植被群系类型的空间预测。该方法在青藏高原的两个代表性地区(波密和若尔盖)进行了验证。结果表明, KnowSim在预测精度和群系类型多样性方面均显著优于随机森林(RF)、极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、支持向量机(SVM)和逻辑回归(LR)模型。尤其是在样点数量有限的植被群系中,该方法具有明显优势:在若尔盖地区,当群系样点数量小于5时,预测精度最高可提升24.6%。此外, KnowSim生成的植被群系分布图更加符合实际环境梯度分布特征和野外调查结果。综上所述, KnowSim方法在样本受限条件下具有更好的生态解释性与预测稳健性。

关键词: 空间分布, 植被群系, 生态学知识, 地理相似性, 有限样点