J Plant Ecol ›› 2023, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): rtad006.DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtad006

• Research Articles •    

Prediction of potential suitable areas for Broussonetia papyrifera in China using the MaxEnt model and CIMP6 data

Meiquan Wang1,2, Qingwei Guan1,2,*   

  1. 1College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;
    2Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
  • Received:2021-12-22 Revised:2022-05-10 Accepted:2023-02-03 Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-08-01
  • Contact: E-mail: guanjapan999@163.com


Abstract: Broussonetia papyrifera is an important native tree species in China with strong adaptability, wide distribution and economic importance. Climate change is considered as the main threat to ecological processes and global biodiversity. Predicting the potential geographical distribution of B. papyrifera in future climate change scenarios will provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration in China. Principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were conducted to select the environmental variables. The distribution and changes in the potential suitable area for B. papyrifera were predicted using the maximum entropy model and the CIMP6 dataset from 2041 to 2060. The current highly suitable areas for B. papyrifera were mainly located in Guangdong (5.60 × 104 km2), Guangxi (4.39 × 104 km2), Taiwan (2.54 × 104 km2) and Hainan (2.17 × 104 km2). The mean temperature of the coldest quarter (11.54-27.11 °C), precipitation of the driest quarter (51.48-818.40 mm) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (665.51-2302.60 mm) were the main factors limiting the suitable areas for B. papyrifera. The multi-modal average of the highly and the total suitable areas for B. papyrifera were 111.42 × 104 and 349.11 × 104 km2 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while those in the SSP1-2.6 scenario were 87.50 × 104 and 328.29 × 104 km2, respectively. The gained suitable areas for B. papyrifera will expand to the western and northern China in the future scenarios. The multi-model averaging results showed that the potential available planting area was 212.66 × 104 and 229.32 × 104 km2 in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, when the suitable area within the farmland range was excluded.

Key words: MaxEnt model, potential suitable areas, Broussonetia papyrifera, CIMP6, China

构树(Broussonetia  papyrifera)具有适应性强、分布广泛、经济价值高等特点,是中国重要的乡土树种。气候变化被认为是对生态过程和全球生物多样性的主要威胁。开展气候变化情境下构树的潜在地理分布研究将为我国的生态恢复提供科学依据。本研究主要采用主成分分析法(PCA)和皮尔逊相关性分析法筛选环境变量。其次,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和CIMP6数据集预测了2041-2060年构树潜在适宜区的分布和变化。研究结果表明,当前构树的高适宜区主要位于广东(5.60 × 104 km2)、广西(4.39 × 104 km2)、台湾(2.54 × 104 km2)和海南(2.17 × 104 km2)等省份。影响构树适宜区分布的主要环境因子为最冷季均温(11.54-27.11 °C)、最干季降水量(51.48-818.40 mm)和最湿季降水量(665.51-2302.60 mm)。未来2041-2060年期间,构树高适宜区和总适宜区的多模式平均值在SSP5-8.5情景下分别为111.42 × 104 km2和349.11 × 104 km2,而在SSP1-2.6情景下为87.50 × 104 km2和328.29 × 104 km2。在未来气候变化情景下,构树适宜区分布将向我国西部和北部地区延伸。此外,除去农田范围内的构树适宜区分布,多模型平均结果显示,构树潜在可种植面积在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下分别为212.66 × 104 km2和229.32 × 104 km2

关键词: 最大熵模型, 潜在适生区, 构树(Broussonetia papyrifera), CMIP6, 中国