入侵杂草北美车前的全球分布范围预计将在气候变化的影响下进一步扩大

doi:10.1093/jpe/rtag120

入侵杂草北美车前的全球分布范围预计将在气候变化的影响下进一步扩大

收稿日期:2025-10-31 修回日期:2026-01-16 接受日期:2026-05-21

The global range of the invasive weed Plantago virginiana is predicted to expand under climate change

Shengtianzi Dong1^,2†, Radosław Puchałka^3,4†, Chenglin Li^5†, Heng Yang⁶, Yufeng Wu^1,2, Hanyue Wang^1,2*, Hegan Dong^1,2*, Jieshi Tang^1,2,7*

1 College of Life Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China;
2 Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-Basin System Ecology, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, China;
3 Department of Ecology and Biogeography, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Toruń, Poland;
4 Centre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Toruń, Poland;
5 Environmental Health Effects and Risk Assessment Key Laboratory of Luzhou, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China;
6 College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China;
7 Research Center for Rural Energy and Ecology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu, China
^†Shengtianzi Dong, Radosław Puchałka and Chenglin Li contributed equally.
^*Correspondence: why1993@shzu.edu.cn; agango@126.com; jieshi_tang@126.com

Received:2025-10-31 Revised:2026-01-16 Accepted:2026-05-21
Supported by:
This work were supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2024YFC2607600); the Tianchi Talent Project of Xinjiang (Grant No. CZ001621; CZ001641); the High-level Talents Scientific Startup Project of Shihezi University (Grant No. RCZK202469); and the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (No. 1610012024003).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生物入侵和气候变化是全球生物多样性保护与生态系统服务的重要威胁。理解和预测外来植物的气候生态位变化，是评估未来气候变化条件下生物入侵风险的关键因素。北美车前（车前科植物）是一种广泛分布于多国的入侵性农业杂草，但其全球气候生态位动态尚不明确。本研究利用2,615个物种分布点及9个筛选后的气候变量构建最大熵模型，以预测北美车前的全球分布格局。基于未来气候数据，在两种气候变化情景（SSP245和SSP585）下，预测了北美车前在未来两个不同时期（2050年和2070年）的分布范围变化。结果表明，北美车前当前（1970-2000年）的潜在分布区主要限于南美洲东部、亚洲东部、地中海北部沿岸及澳大利亚东部海岸。影响北美车前全球潜在分布的主要气候变量为最暖季降水量（Bio18）、最冷季降水量（Bio19）、变温性（Bio3）及最暖月最高气温（Bio5）。由于气候变化，北美车前的全球潜在分布区整体上将可能出现进一步扩张，在南美洲中部、欧洲中部及亚洲中部等地区将出现新的适宜栖息地。本研究结果有助于预测气候变化下北美车前全球分布的动态变化，从而为制定降低北美车前生物入侵风险与影响的相关策略提供科学依据。

关键词: 生物入侵, 气候变化, 最大熵模型, 生态位动态, 北美车前, 共享社会经济路径

Abstract: Biological invasions and climate change represent considerable threats to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services worldwide. Understanding and predicting the changes in the climatic niches of alien plants is a crucial factor in assessing the risks of biological invasions under future climate change conditions. Plantago virginica L. (Plantaginaceae family) is an invasive agricultural weed found in many countries, but its global climate niche dynamics remain unknown. We used 2,615 occurrence points and 9 refined climate variables to develop a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the distribution of P. virginica. Utilizing predicted future climate data, the range shifts of P. virginica were forecasted for two distinct periods (2050 and 2070) under two climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The findings suggested that the current potential distribution of P. virginica is mainly limited to eastern South America, eastern Asia, the northern Mediterranean coast, and the eastern Australian coast. The primary climatic variables influencing the potential distribution of P. virginica were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), isothermality (Bio3), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5). Due to climate change, the potential distribution of P. virginica will likely expand overall, leading to the emergence of new suitable habitats in regions such as central South America, central Europe, and central Asia. Our results help predict dynamic changes in the distribution of P. virginica under climate change and thus aid in formulating strategies to reduce the risks and impacts of biological invasions.

Key words: Biological invasion, climate change, MaxEnt, niche dynamics, Plantago virginica, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

. 入侵杂草北美车前的全球分布范围预计将在气候变化的影响下进一步扩大[J]. Journal of Plant Ecology, DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtag120.

Shengtianzi Dong, Radosław Puchałka, Chenglin Li, Heng Yang, Yufeng Wu, Hanyue Wang, Hegan Dong, Jieshi Tang. The global range of the invasive weed Plantago virginiana is predicted to expand under climate change[J]. J Plant Ecol, DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtag120.

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