关键词: 气候变化, 堆叠物种分布模型, 物种多样性, 红豆杉属 (Taxus L.), 栖息地适宜性, 范围转移, 水热交互

Abstract: Taxus has unique survival adaptability and climate sensitivity, reflecting the evolutionary characteristics of gymnosperms. It is also an indicator species threatened by climate change, with the most representative endangered species. Because it is the only plant in nature that can naturally synthesize Taxol, it has attracted wide attention. However, the global distribution pattern of Taxus and its climate response mechanisms remain unclear. Moreover, the quantitative absence of key driving factors severely restricts the precise formulation of conservation strategies. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for Taxus on a global scale. Patterns and driving mechanisms of species richness distributions were predicted using stacked species distribution models. Results showed high species richness regions concentrated in southern Asia and central Europe, and a clear unimodal pattern with a latitudinal gradient (20 °N – 60 °N). Precipitation of the driest quarter (> 14 mm) was a critical determinant of survival, while the aridity index indicated preferences for sub-humid to humid zones. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (> – 15 °C) was a dominant factor accelerating range shifts; under the SSP5-8.5, migration distance (+ 70 km) and range loss (– 58.2%) increased significantly. Species richness loss hotspots included southern North America, eastern/southwestern Europe, and Southeast Asia, with Taxus baccata, Taxus cuspidata, and Taxus brevifolia facing the highest extinction risk. At the same time, wildfires and overgrazing will further exacerbate the loss of area in species richness hotspots, especially for Taxus cuspidata and Taxus wallichiana. Targeted conservation management of endangered species is urgently needed to maintain sustainable biodiversity development.

Key words: climate change, stacked species distribution model, species diversity, Taxus L, habitat suitability, range shift, hydrothermal interaction