关键词: 生物入侵, 气候变化, 环境因素, 潜在地理分布, 生境适宜性, 生态位重叠

Abstract: Bidens pilosa, a globally invasive Asteraceae plant, threatens both natural and agro-ecological habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a valuable tool for predicting invasion potential, often exclusively based on climate variables. Here, we aimed to predict the current and future global distribution of B. pilosa by integrating climatic, human-induced and biodiversity factors, all of which are critical for accurate projections. Our more comprehensive results showed that climate conditions were the main driver of B. pilosa’s current distribution, with an expanded suitable area compared to previous studies, especially in eastern China and the Sichuan Basin. Incorporating human-induced factors significantly reduced predicted suitable areas, reflecting the species’ association with disturbed environments shaped by human activities. Biodiversity factors further refined habitat suitability, as areas with high phylogenetic richness were identified as potential hotspots for invasion due to competitive or facilitative interactions. Future predictions, based on solely available climate data, suggested a high risk of habitat expansions in Asia, Europe and North America. Niche dynamic analyses revealed that introduced populations occupied a distinct environmental niche space compared to native populations, due to adapting to altered climatic and anthropogenic conditions. This ecological niche divergence is likely driving the increased invasion risk in the introduced range. Our study underscores the complex interactions between climate conditions, biodiversity and human activity in shaping the spread of B. pilosa. SDMs integrating climatic, biotic variables and human-influenced factors, together with updated occurrence data improve predictions of invasion spread and help guide targeted management.

Key words: biological invasions, climate change, environmental factors, potential geographical distribution, habitat suitability, niche overlap