Aims In view of the growing interest in modelling the potential spread of invasive species, prediction of plant invasiveness on the basis of native range size holds considerable promise. Our objective was to use a simple model to evaluate whether a wider native range predisposes plant species to become invasive in non-native regions and to easily identify potential invaders on this basis. The Kashmir Himalayan alien flora, of which a large proportion is native to Europe, was used to test this model.
Methods The Kashmir Himalayan alien flora comprises 436 species of vascular plants at different stages of invasion. We focussed on plant species at two critical invasion stages (sensu Colautti and MacIsaac 2004), i.e. Stage II (species that are just at the earliest phase of introduction) and Stage V (species that are widespread and dominant in the invaded region and are thus considered invasive). We used the territorial distribution in Europe (number of countries) as a surrogate for the native range size of plants of European origin.
Important findings Using a subset of 88 species, for which information on the native European range was available, we showed that a large proportion (68%) of Stage II species growing in the Kashmir Valley had a relatively restricted European range (present in ≤20 countries); on the other hand, 77% of Stage V species had an extensive native range (present in>20 countries). We consequently hypothesized that 14 Kashmir Himalayan Stage II species of European origin that are distributed in>20 European countries are at risk of becoming future invaders in Kashmir. On the other hand, those Kashmir Himalayan Stage II species of European origin distributed in ≤20 European countries are less likely to become invasive. Although this analysis is quite simple, the data suggest that a wider native range is a good predictor of plant invasiveness and could be used as a simple and low-cost early warning tool in predicting potential invasive species.